It’s the Economy, Stupid

Clear back in 1992, while advising Bill Clinton on his ultimately successful White House run, James Carville coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid.” It has attained political immortality, still invoked virtually every election season more than thirty years later—and for good reason. 

Americans may disagree about a lot of things—most things, if I’m being honest—but we are united when it comes to wanting a strong economy. Rich or poor, no one is happy with higher prices, rising unemployment, recession, or inflation. (The last one was one of the big reasons Trump won the election; inflation under Joe Biden was a global problem sparked by the pandemic, and Americans felt it. The US recovered from it without a recession, and our economy was strong and outperforming most other developed nations by the end of his term, but no one has ever accused American voters of an excess of attention to detail.)

Recent polls—gruesome for Trump, who is the first President in history to have an underwater approval rating in the first quarter of a term, and whose rating on the economy is an abysmal 38%, both from a FOX News poll and in line with other big pollsters—indicate that a lot of people already regret their vote for him. Unfortunately for all of us, that demographic is almost certainly going to swell in ranks, and quite soon. 

The first 48 hours after Trump announced his across-the-board tariffs saw $5 trillion in American wealth go poof. But most Americans don’t feel it when the Dow plummets—not right away. The real results of these tariffs, and the chaos his on-again, off-again, now-it’s-145%-on-China whims have inflicted on the global economy, have taken time to take effect. And those effects are now looming. 

After consistent economic growth for nearly three years, we now know that the US economy actually shrank in this first quarter of 2025. It didn’t plateau, it didn’t slow: someone slammed on the brakes and threw it into reverse. Job creation in April was 46% lower than expected, and was down 58% from the previous month. The dollar’s value is deteriorating to the point that major GOP donor Ken Griffin says “the US has become 20 percent poorer in four weeks.” 

All these may still seem too abstract to some readers. Here are some not-so-abstract developments already here, or on the near horizon:

We are already seeing a precipitous decline in container ships arriving in our ports, particularly from China, formerly our third-largest trading partner. These canceled shipments will have a cascade of negative effects, from higher prices to product shortages, not to mention the sharp dropoff in work for truckers, most of whom are self-employed owner-operators. 

UPS has announced it will cut 20,000 jobs this year due to the tariffs’ expected effect on shipping. 

American farmers, who overwhelmingly supported Trump in the election, are already hurting. The President’s shutdown of USAID has ended $2 billion in annual purchases from farmers. And his trade war with China has caused a massive hit to American soybean, cotton, and pork exports, which are down 50%, 50%, and 72% respectively. The Administration has already indicated it may bail out farmers damaged by the trade war, just as Trump did in his first term, when his first (but smaller) trade war with China harmed them. And of course, any bailout, like the tariffs, will be paid by American taxpayers. 

Supply chain researchers, shipping industry insiders, and logistics specialists agree that Americans can expect higher prices and goods shortages. The founder and CEO of supply chain logistics platform Flexport, Ryan Petersen, says that if Trump continues on his current course, we are certain to see extreme shortages, “Probably worse than anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes.” Nick Vyas, founding director of USC Marshall’s Randall R. Kendrick Global Supply Chain Institute, says “If we ratchet up the continued pressure on China, we create the huge destruction of the global economy, to the point that it’s as bad as the Great Depression of 1928 or something even bigger than that.”

JP Morgan projects the probability that we are heading into a recession at 60%. Some experts fear we face an even worse fate: stagflation. 

Uncertainty is a killer for business development, and right now America is steeped in uncertainty thanks to the President’s haphazard tariff actions. One thing we can be certain of though: he will never accept responsibility for the consequences of those actions. 

So, the economy that was booming under Biden was actually Trump’s doing, and the economy that has been crippled in the first 100 days of Trump’s administration by his unprecedented single-handed manipulation of global trade is actually Biden’s doing. Got it. 

We can also be certain that he will do anything in his power to keep us from seeing his tariffs’ direct consequences to us. After reports surfaced that Amazon was planning to list the cost of tariffs right alongside the prices of products affected by tariffs, Trump placed an angry call to Jeff Bezos, who apparently assured the President that Amazon will not implement that plan. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the plan was a “hostile and political act” by Amazon. (The President cannot stop Chinese retailer Temu from doing the same, however, which Temu shoppers are now learning.)

Tariffs and trade wars have consequences, and Americans of all political persuasions are going to learn this the hard way, and soon. 

What we can do:

As I’ve said before, POTUS only has the power to levy tariffs because Congress delegated it to him. They can take it away. Republicans in Congress are allowing this slow-motion train wreck, and we should let them know how we feel about it. 

But more personally: donate to your local food pantry. The poorest Americans will be hit hardest and soonest, and they will need our help. 

And if you like to cook Asian cuisine at home, stock up on fish sauce now.